Political Forecasting • GeNIe 5.0 • Bayesian Analysis
Master Political Forecasting
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— The Three Pillars
The ICEUR Ecosystem
ICEUR combines an analytical center, an educational platform, and an international community. Together, they create a structure where research, learning, and long-term professional exchange support one another.
ICEUR Vienna
The analytical foundation of the institute: research, political forecasting, and strategic interpretation of international processes.
Analytical Center
ICEUR Online School
The educational direction of ICEUR: courses, lectures, workshops, and practical training in modern geopolitical analysis.
Education
The Community
A professional network connecting students, lecturers, analysts, diplomats, and partners beyond the classroom.
Community
— About ICEUR
The International Center for Eastern Europe Research
A Vienna-based center for political analysis and forecasting
ICEUR combines geopolitical research, forecasting methodology, and international academic dialogue in an independent analytical environment.
Vienna-based analytical center
Independent research and international expertise
Focus on international relations
Geopolitics, forecasting, and strategic analysis
Under the Auspices of BMEIA
Federal Ministry for European and International Affairs
— Faculty
— ICEUR Online School
Political Forecasting
& Consulting School
From academic knowledge
to practical analysis
ICEUR Online School brings together international experts, researchers, and practitioners for intensive courses in political forecasting, decision-making, and applied analytical methods.
PREVIOUS SEMESTERS
— The Community
What you get inside the community
Full Library Access
Everything you need to start thinking sharper.
€120
€29/mo
Dr. Ludmilla Lobova
Dr. Ludmilla Lobova is a political scientist, Scientific Director and Vice President of ICEUR-Vienna, specializing in political forecasting, international affairs, and the analysis of political processes under uncertainty.
A central focus of her work at ICEUR is the methodology of political forecasting. She examines the limitations of conventional expert analysis, the sources of systematic forecasting errors, and the ways in which probabilistic and Bayesian reasoning can provide a more rigorous framework for dealing with uncertainty. Rather than seeking a single “correct” prediction, this approach emphasizes assigning probabilities to possible outcomes, updating assessments as new information becomes available, and systematically learning from forecasting errors.
Her academic and analytical work also covers international relations, Russian foreign and security policy, political conflicts, and transformation processes across the post-Soviet space.
Dr. Lobova studied law, history, and political science and received her doctoral degree in 1995. In Austria, she was a Lise Meitner Fellow of the Austrian Science Fund (FWF), conducting research on Russian perceptions of Austrian neutrality and its significance for European security.
She has worked with the Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for Research on the Consequences of War, the Austrian State Archives, and the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM). She has also delivered lectures and seminars at the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna and the University of Vienna.
Dr. Lobova is the author of publications on Russian foreign and security policy, European security, political Islam, and ethno-political conflicts. Together with Prof. Hans-Georg Heinrich, she has also served as an editor of the academic series ICEUR Insight Studies.
At the ICEUR School of Political Forecasting, she combines decades of experience in political and regional analysis with Bayesian reasoning, scenario analysis, and probabilistic forecasting, emphasizing an approach in which the quality of a forecast depends not on an expert’s confidence, but on the ability to formulate testable assessments, account explicitly for uncertainty, and revise conclusions as new evidence emerges.
A central focus of her work at ICEUR is the methodology of political forecasting. She examines the limitations of conventional expert analysis, the sources of systematic forecasting errors, and the ways in which probabilistic and Bayesian reasoning can provide a more rigorous framework for dealing with uncertainty. Rather than seeking a single “correct” prediction, this approach emphasizes assigning probabilities to possible outcomes, updating assessments as new information becomes available, and systematically learning from forecasting errors.
Her academic and analytical work also covers international relations, Russian foreign and security policy, political conflicts, and transformation processes across the post-Soviet space.
Dr. Lobova studied law, history, and political science and received her doctoral degree in 1995. In Austria, she was a Lise Meitner Fellow of the Austrian Science Fund (FWF), conducting research on Russian perceptions of Austrian neutrality and its significance for European security.
She has worked with the Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for Research on the Consequences of War, the Austrian State Archives, and the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM). She has also delivered lectures and seminars at the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna and the University of Vienna.
Dr. Lobova is the author of publications on Russian foreign and security policy, European security, political Islam, and ethno-political conflicts. Together with Prof. Hans-Georg Heinrich, she has also served as an editor of the academic series ICEUR Insight Studies.
At the ICEUR School of Political Forecasting, she combines decades of experience in political and regional analysis with Bayesian reasoning, scenario analysis, and probabilistic forecasting, emphasizing an approach in which the quality of a forecast depends not on an expert’s confidence, but on the ability to formulate testable assessments, account explicitly for uncertainty, and revise conclusions as new evidence emerges.
Prof. Hans-Georg Heinrich
Prof. Hans-Georg Heinrich is a political scientist, political forecasting expert, and co-founder of ICEUR (Institute for the Comparative Study of European and Eurasian Regions) in Vienna.
His academic and professional career spans several decades of research into political systems, international relations, conflicts, and political transformation, with a particular focus on Eastern Europe, Russia, and the post-Soviet space. A central element of his work is the structured analysis of complex political processes and the development of methods for forecasting under conditions of uncertainty.
At ICEUR, Prof. Heinrich has played a key role in developing and teaching approaches to political forecasting based on probabilistic reasoning and Bayesian networks. His methodology combines expert political analysis with formal modelling techniques, transforming complex relationships between political, economic, and social factors into structured models and scenarios.
Prof. Heinrich previously held a professorship at the University of Vienna and has held visiting teaching and research positions at universities and academic institutions in Russia, Hungary, Poland, Iraq, Egypt, and other countries.
Alongside his academic career, he has extensive experience working in international environments, including assignments with the OSCE in Tbilisi, Chechnya, and Belgrade. This combination of academic research and field experience has informed his approach to analysing political instability, conflict, and complex international developments.
He is the author and editor of numerous academic publications on Soviet and Russian politics, Eastern Europe, political transformation, conflict, and international relations.
At ICEUR, Prof. Heinrich brings together decades of experience in comparative politics and international affairs with Bayesian modelling and structured political forecasting, applying these methods to the analysis of complex political scenarios and the systematic assessment of possible future developments.
His academic and professional career spans several decades of research into political systems, international relations, conflicts, and political transformation, with a particular focus on Eastern Europe, Russia, and the post-Soviet space. A central element of his work is the structured analysis of complex political processes and the development of methods for forecasting under conditions of uncertainty.
At ICEUR, Prof. Heinrich has played a key role in developing and teaching approaches to political forecasting based on probabilistic reasoning and Bayesian networks. His methodology combines expert political analysis with formal modelling techniques, transforming complex relationships between political, economic, and social factors into structured models and scenarios.
Prof. Heinrich previously held a professorship at the University of Vienna and has held visiting teaching and research positions at universities and academic institutions in Russia, Hungary, Poland, Iraq, Egypt, and other countries.
Alongside his academic career, he has extensive experience working in international environments, including assignments with the OSCE in Tbilisi, Chechnya, and Belgrade. This combination of academic research and field experience has informed his approach to analysing political instability, conflict, and complex international developments.
He is the author and editor of numerous academic publications on Soviet and Russian politics, Eastern Europe, political transformation, conflict, and international relations.
At ICEUR, Prof. Heinrich brings together decades of experience in comparative politics and international affairs with Bayesian modelling and structured political forecasting, applying these methods to the analysis of complex political scenarios and the systematic assessment of possible future developments.