Dr. Andreas UMLAND. Dr. Robert MÜLLER. Dr. John LOUGH

Europe, Ukraine, and the Next Security Order

Four expert lectures tracing how the war in Ukraine could end, what Europe must do next, and how policy meets the battlefield. A serving ambassador in Kyiv, a National Defence Academy scholar, and a former NATO representative in Moscow dissect CSDP shifts, sanctions and reconstruction, Europe’s re-armament, drones/AI at war, and the myths around “Western provocation.”

You will learn to:

map EU CSDP instruments (Strategic Compass, missions, capabilities) to real-world security outcomes;

evaluate sanctions, aid, and reconstruction trade-offs for Ukraine and the EU;

build end-of-war scenarios and indicators (long war vs. frozen conflict) and brief them clearly;

separate narrative warfare (“provocation” myths) from evidence-based analysis.

What’s inside (4 lectures):

EU CSDP after the Strategic Compass — A concise tour of Europe’s security toolset: capability targets, missions/operations, and how folders, pipelines, and budgets translate into deployable power and resilience.

Kyiv from the inside: diplomacy, sanctions, reconstruction — Austria’s Ambassador in Kyiv on daily realities under fire, EU assistance, sanctions packages, accession logic, and ten hard lessons for European security and statecraft.

How this war could end (and what it means for Europe) — Two realistic pathways (attritional long war vs. frozen conflict), the US variable, Europe’s re-armament, and the drone/AI revolution reshaping the battlefield—and NATO learning.

Was it “provoked by the West”? A debate, unpacked — A clear, sourced rebuttal of the “NATO made it happen” thesis, restoring Ukrainian agency and tracing where the argument misreads history, policy, and proportionality.

Speakers

👤 Dr. Robert Müller — Ambassador of Austria to Ukraine. Former postings include UN disarmament (Geneva), OSCE, NATO PfP, and Eastern Europe/Central Asia at the MFA. In Kyiv since 2025, he leads on humanitarian support, demining, energy efficiency, and reconstruction cooperation.

👤 Dr. John Lough — Geopolitical analyst; former NATO representative in Moscow; veteran of business, diplomacy, and research on Russia/Eastern Europe. Focus: end-of-war scenarios, European defense, drones/AI on the battlefield, and narrative warfare.

👤 Dr. Andreas Umland — Analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies, Associate Professor at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.