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Dr. Marc P. Berenson.

Ukraine in the Diplomacy of War: State, Corruption, and a New Social Contract

The class lecture highlights Ukraine’s twin main post-1991 tasks as countering the proliferation of corruption and keeping Russia out of its democracy so that the country can thrive economically, politically, and socially.

The lecture will begin by exploring why Ukraine underwent a very difficult transition to democracy and the market economy in the 1990s, explaining the proliferation of corruption and poor governance from the 1990s up to Russia’s full-scale invasion as well as exploring how the country began to address these issues following the 2004-05 Orange Revolution and the 2013-14 Euromaidan Revolution (also known as the Revolution of Dignity).

The lecture then draws upon my Ukraine Taxpayer Compliance Attitudinal Surveys, undertaken with Kyiv’s Razumkov Centre from 2005-2025, to probe the impact of the Russian invasion of February 2022 on citizen trust in the state generally and specifically within the policy areas of tax collection and mobilisation in defence of the country.

Comparing the post-February 2022 survey findings to pre-2022 survey findings on identical questions strongly suggests that a new, healthier social contract is currently being built between the Ukrainian state and society, which has the potential to lead to better post-war governance and reduced corruption if and when the Russian invaders are forced out.

Hossein Kermani

Iran in war and protests: novel tactics in information repression and discursive manipulation

This lecture focuses on the tactics that the Islamic regime in Iran has developed over the years to manipulate and suppress information.

The eventual aim of such tactics is to polarize opposition and to dismantle the ability of dissent to form a unified front. We will focus in particular on propaganda, depoliticization, online incivility, false information, and strategic unverifiability.

Through an extensive review of different cases from anti-regime domestic movements like women, life, freedom, and the January 2026 protests, in addition to the war between Iran and Israel, the U.S., we will investigate how such forms of information manipulation have been employed and affect the movement.

The course will also discuss the use of AI for this purpose and, in particular, how the Islamic regime targeted the international audience.

Anatol Lieven

Toward a New Europe

The basic problem of Britain and the leading countries of the European Union is that we are facing a future of economic stagnation that in turn is helping to worsen political polarisation, social anomie, and ethno-religious tension. The latter threatens future civil strife and the end of European liberal democracy.

This tension is being worsened by the crisis in the Middle East, that is leading to the Right and Left lining up on opposite sides of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Particularly since the Israeli-US war on Iran and the resulting energy crisis, European self-interest would dictate a decisive break with the US and Israel over the Middle East. This however has been made much more difficult by the Ukraine War and European perceptions of a dire Russian threat. Trump's threats to end support for Ukraine have terrified European governments.

In particular, the Poles and Balts (and to a lesser extent the Finns and Swedes) are absolutely determined to oppose a Ukrainian peace settlement and to keep the US committed to Europe, and will therefore block any united independent European approach to the Middle East or to a partnership with China.

Europe's crisis risks being greatly worsened in the medium term by three new factors, the impact of which cannot presently be assessed but which may prove catastrophic: the impact of Artificial Intelligence on educated middle class employment; the combination of high sub-Saharan African birth rates with deep poverty, dysfunctional states and local conflicts; and climate change pushing these countries into state failure and mass exodus.

An effective response at the EU level appears unlikely, both given the nature of the EU as an institution and the rise of populist parties that wish to weaken the power of central European institutions and return to a "Europe des Patries". On the other hand, no European state is now strong enough to adopt an independent and effective international position on its own.

To meet these challenges may therefore require a new form of "coalition of the willing", made up of leading West European states. This in turn however would probably require ideological compatibility between their governments. Most indications however seem to point in the direction of growing political polarisation. AfD in Germany and the Socialists in Spain agree on their approach to the Iran War, but can they agree on anything else?

Perhaps - all present evidence notwithstanding - European cultures still retain sufficient vitality to generate leaderships capable of overcoming these threats. We had better hope so; but hope, as they say, is not a strategy.

Arkady Mil-Man

The New Middle East: Regional Power Repositioning

This lecture explores the Middle East as a secondary but increasingly central theater shaped by the logic of contemporary conflict. The war involving Iran and the broader confrontation between Iran, Israel, and the United States has accelerated a process of strategic recalibration across the region, reshaping both alignments and threat perceptions.

At the core of this transformation is a shift in the regional balance of power. Traditional alignments are eroding, giving way to more flexible, interest-based coalitions. Gulf monarchies, in particular, are pursuing strategies of strategic hedging, balancing their relationships with the United States, China, and regional actors while managing both direct and indirect exposure to Iranian influence.

Energy geopolitics has re-emerged as a central organizing factor. The vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, the interaction between military escalation and global energy markets, and the use of energy flows as both leverage and constraint all reinforce the region’s global significance.

At the same time, the evolving environment produces a complex structure of risks and opportunities. Escalation dynamics, economic vulnerabilities, and infrastructural exposure coexist with new openings for regional and external actors to reshape influence.

In this context, the Middle East is no longer a self-contained regional system, but a testing ground where global competition, energy security, and limited war converge into a single strategic environment.

Doris Vogl

A closer look on Chinas current Diplomacy Strategies

China’s growing assertiveness in the global diplomatic arena has become an increasingly important feature of contemporary international politics. Beijing is expanding its presence not only in its traditional spheres of influence, but also in regions that were previously dominated by Western actors. This shift is generating a degree of irritation not only within the G7, but also among countries of the Global South, including members of BRICS+ and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, where China is now seen not only as a partner, but also as a competitor.

At the core of China’s modern diplomacy lies a combination of pragmatism, long-term strategic planning, and an ambition to reshape elements of the existing international order. Beijing promotes concepts such as multipolarity, sovereign equality, and non-interference, while simultaneously expanding its influence through economic, infrastructural, and political instruments. Initiatives like the Belt and Road serve not only economic purposes, but also function as key tools of diplomatic engagement and influence-building.

An important feature of China’s approach is the diversity of diplomatic “battlefields” on which it operates. These include economic diplomacy, active participation in international institutions, and the development of bilateral relations with key regional actors. In recent years, China has also shown a greater willingness to engage in security issues and conflict mediation—areas that were previously less central to its foreign policy profile.

Overall, China’s contemporary diplomacy can be seen as a dynamic and multi-layered system that combines cooperation and competition. Understanding its theoretical foundations and practical directions is essential for assessing how China seeks to shape the evolving architecture of global governance, and what challenges this creates for both established and emerging international actors.

Dr. Vladislav Inozemtsev

The Causes of the "Global Crisis" and Its Impact on Russia

I would not argue that we are now confronted with something close to a "global crisis". Rather, it would be more accurate to say that the U.S. has fundamentally altered its assessment of its own capabilities and its scope of action; the White House now considers itself entitled to do whatever it wishes, if it feels it cannot be stopped by sheer force. Yes, this constitutes a strikingly new reality; however, the greater part of the world remains uninvolved in ongoing war (and will not become its part in the future), so it is hardly appropriate to speak of a "global crisis".

Russia may be called a clear beneficiary of the current events for two reasons.

On the one hand, through its actions, the U.S. is effectively legitimizing the war in Ukraine, as it validates the possibility of discarding all established rules (as early as 2014, the Kremlin argued that either a «new world order» is established on its own terms, or the «game without rules» will dominate). That latter scenario has now commenced—an environment that Putin views both favourable for himself, and ruinous for Europe. Consequently, Moscow is satisfied with the unfolding situation; the extermination of the leadership of a friendly nation is regarded as a mere trifle.

On the other hand, Russia benefits from shifts in the oil market—where prices have surged—as well as from the lifting of sanctions, enabling it to export resources more effectively. Should this price level persist for another three to four months, the Russian budget will be executed in accordance with the parameters approved in 2025 (precisely as I had projected in my 2026 forecast, published last December). The economic impact of the war in Iran on Russia is expected to be both enduring and positive; even after the conflict concludes, sanctions are quite unlikely to be reinstated, while demand for Russian oil may remain at elevated level for months.

At the same time, however, one must also consider another serious consequence of this war. U.S. strikes against Iran have intensified Putin’s phobias (and those who believe that internet restrictions in Russia and the tightening of police control are direct consequences of these events are correct). Consequently, the easing of the budgetary constraints will most likely fuel increased war efforts and expansion of the special services—a course of action that, in the long run, risks precipitating a deeper economic crisis and fuel public discontent. Thus, despite obvious short-term benefits for Russia, the war in the Persian Gulf carries numerous potentially negative consequences, the full scale of which remains difficult to assess.

Kostiantyn Bondarenko

War as the New Normal in the Post-Helsinki International Order

This lecture examines the return of war as a tool of global politics and its gradual normalization within international relations. It explores why, after a relatively stable period shaped by the principles of the Helsinki system, the world has once again entered an era marked by an increasing number of conflicts of varying scale and intensity.

Particular attention will be given to the root causes behind this wave of modern wars, including shifts in the balance of power, the crisis of international institutions, growing competition among states, and changing approaches to security and sovereignty. The lecture will also analyze the nature of international relations in recent decades, focusing on the erosion of established norms and rules, the declining effectiveness of diplomacy, and rising mistrust among key global actors.

Additionally, the lecture will address the consequences of the collapse of the Helsinki system and explain why accumulated tensions are increasingly difficult to resolve through peaceful means. It will conclude with a discussion of possible future scenarios for the international system and the role of conflict in shaping a new global order.

Dr. Stephen M. Norris.

A Movie-Made War: Russian Cinema and Ukraine in the Era of Putin 2

This lecture will focus on Russian cultural policies and film propaganda after Vladimir Putin returned to the presidency in 2012. Putin’s appointment of Vladimir Medinsky as Minister of Culture that year brought the ministry and its policies into line with Putinist politics, effectively making it a Ministry of Propaganda.

Medinsky’s “Fundamentals of State Cultural Policy,” issued in 2013, set the tone for the next decade: in it, the Minister of Culture promoted a singular worldview of “Russian values” that would “bind the nation.”

Movies would play a prominent role in this cultural policy: as the journalist Mikhail Zygar has written, Medinsky’s tenure as Minister of Culture was one where “His entire cultural policy can be described as the propaganda of war and violence.”

My talk will focus on a handful of blockbusters made before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that rewrote the history of World War II by slotting its narratives into contemporary Putinist political stances. The 2022 invasion, as I will argue, was in many ways a movie-made war.

Dr. Marek J. Drudzel

BayesFusion Introduction. GeNie 5.0 Workshop

Lecture on Bayesian networks, focusing on dynamic and qualitative models, and how QGI interfaces with GeNIe to build fast, probabilistic models. Demonstrates practical modeling steps, inference, and visualization, with examples (rain/crop, airplane profits, stock market discussion), plus guidance on model building, parameters, and common mistakes.

• Overview of Bayesian networks and independence representations
• Qualitative (QGI) vs. quantitative (GeNIe) models and export workflow
• Dynamic Bayesian networks and temporal plate construction