ICEUR School of Political Forecasting under the auspices of

The Federal Ministry European and International Affairs Republic of Austria

An introduction to political forecasting

Prof. Hans-Georg Heinrich

Introduction to political forecasting emphasizing Bayesian reasoning, modeling uncertainty, and the use of GeNIe 5.0 / Qgenie tools to combine qualitative and quantitative methods for better forecasts, with attention to biases, surprises, and real-time analysis.

• Bayesian reasoning as core of forecasting and model construction
• GeNIe 5.0 software and Bayesian tools used for probabilistic forecasting
• Qualitative vs quantitative modeling (QGeNIe for qualitative, GeNIe 5.0 for quantitative)

Bayesian Reasoning. GeNie 5.0 Workshop

Prof. Hans-Georg Heinrich

Every decision in our lives involves a forecast of its consequences. Unfortunately, even professional forecasts often perform no better than a coin toss. In some domains—such as financial markets—meaningful prediction may be fundamentally impossible. Moreover, forecasters often have incentives to downplay the level of uncertainty, the so-called “noise.”

Nevertheless, by explicitly accounting for sufficiently large margins of error in advance, forecast accuracy can be significantly improved. This introductory course focuses on how to make fewer mistakes and on developing an intuition for both the possibilities and the limits of forecasting. Bayesian thinking is proposed as a central approach, as it allows for the consideration of alternative hypotheses and formalizes the process of prediction that we use in everyday life.

Prof. Anatoliy Kruglashov

Every decision in our lives involves a forecast of its consequences. Unfortunately, even professional forecasts often perform no better than a coin toss. In some domains—such as financial markets—meaningful prediction may be fundamentally impossible. Moreover, forecasters often have incentives to downplay the level of uncertainty, the so-called “noise.”

Nevertheless, by explicitly accounting for sufficiently large margins of error in advance, forecast accuracy can be significantly improved. This introductory course focuses on how to make fewer mistakes and on developing an intuition for both the possibilities and the limits of forecasting. Bayesian thinking is proposed as a central approach, as it allows for the consideration of alternative hypotheses and formalizes the process of prediction that we use in everyday life.

Arkady Mil-Man

Too much and too fast – The Middle East has been undergoing a radical transformation in the last three years. Across the region, we’ve seen wars, regime changes, unprecedented protests, new alliances, failed proxies, democratic backslidings and stabilisations.

Iran faced nationwide unrest, airstrikes, and heavy losses to its military and nuclear infrastructure. Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanon weakened after Israel’s “Pager Attack.” Yemen remains in crisis as Houthis disrupt Red Sea trade. Assad’s regime collapsed. Israel’s regional normalization under the Abraham Accords progressed, only to be partly reversed by the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip.
These developments are deeply interconnected and define a new Middle East. The seismic shifts are reshaping both governance and social dynamics across the region. Who is profiting from the changes, and who is losing? How have internal and external power dynamics evolved? This lecture explores the meaning behind these changes and their global implications

USA-Russia and the New World Order

Prof. Nina Khrushcheva

It’s impossible to talk about the New World Order without mentioning its key designer – the United States. Donald Trump has turned his country upside down. A convicted felon, who won not only the Electoral College, but also the popular vote of over 71 million Americans.

At home he is attacking institutions and polarizing the people further apart. Notorious for unpredictability, Trump’s foreign policy is equally erratic and worrisome. Take his mixed statements about Putin, Zelensky, and a potentially disastrous bilateral deal with Russia. Add unprecedented actions towards Iran and Israel, the EU and China, and we have a real brain-teaser for those trying to comprehend swift and impending changes he’s bringing upon the world. Is there some sort of coherence? What may he do next to announce another ‘win’? If not predictions, can we at least speculate on what to expect? Or does his show business approach to politics eliminates this option too? This lecture will dive deep into what’s going on with America right now and how it affects everyone else on the planet.

BayesFusion Introduction

Dr. Marek J. Drudzel

Professor Marek Druzdzel (University of Pittsburgh, co-founder of BayesFusion and lead developer of GeNIe 5.0) introduces the core concepts and advanced features of the GeNIe modeling environment. He explains how Bayesian networks evolved into hybrid and dynamic systems, demonstrates how to build simple equation-based models directly in GeNIe — from Newton’s Second Law to engineering and economic examples — and shares the story behind the development of BayesFusion.

The lecture combines theory with hands-on practice, showing how GeNIe can be applied to data analysis, forecasting, and decision modeling.

BayesFusion Introduction. GeNie 5.0 Workshop

Dr. Marek J. Drudzel

Lecture on Bayesian networks, focusing on dynamic and qualitative models, and how QGI interfaces with GeNIe to build fast, probabilistic models. Demonstrates practical modeling steps, inference, and visualization, with examples (rain/crop, airplane profits, stock market discussion), plus guidance on model building, parameters, and common mistakes.

• Overview of Bayesian networks and independence representations
• Qualitative (QGI) vs. quantitative (GeNIe) models and export workflow
• Dynamic Bayesian networks and temporal plate construction

QGeNIe Workshop. Designing Forecasting Models in Political Research

Prof. Hans-Georg Heinrich

Lecture/demo of a QGeNIe workshop on modeling corruption using Bayesian networks, emphasizing contextual design, node/edge selection, priors, and both static and dynamic analyses.

• Contextuality is crucial for project design (scientific vs political campaigning vs media work)
• Start with clear objectives and appropriate complexity to determine factors and algorithms
• Define nodes, relationships (inhibitors, requirements), and priors; distinguish causes vs barriers

European Integration in the South Caucasus. Diverging Paths of Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan

Edmon Marukyan

The South Caucasus region, comprising Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, has long stood at the crossroads of empires, ideologies, and geopolitical interests. In recent years, the region’s relationship with the European Union has evolved in markedly different directions.

This lecture will explore the complex and diverging trajectories of these three nations in their pursuit or rejection of European integration.It will cover Armenia’s western pivot, Georgia’s democratic backsliding, Azerbaijan’s strategic distance from the EU, and the role of Russia in all of that.

The War in Ukraine: China, Russia, and the World After the Ukraine War

Dr. John Lough

The world is entering an age of tectonic shifts.

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it became clear: the old world order did not collapse overnight — it is slowly eroding. Russia is losing influence but not disappearing; the West has united but is already showing fatigue; and China, while keeping Moscow afloat, is quietly becoming the architect of a new balance.

John Lough, Senior Fellow at Chatham House and former NATO advisor, explains why Beijing has become the main beneficiary of this war. China sustains Russia with oil, technology, and goods — from bulldozers to drones — yet it does not want Moscow to win. A Russian victory would mean chaos, the destruction of Ukraine, and the destabilization of Europe — China’s most important export market.

This is not just a story of war or diplomacy. It is a story of the shifting logic of global power — how Asia rises as the West tires, how fear replaces ideology, and how demographics, energy, and economics will define the 21st century far more than politics ever could.

The War Against Ukraine

Andrew Wilson

Lecture on Ukraine’s foreign policy evolution, geopolitical thinking, and how Ukraine fits into the new world order amid war, focusing on multivectorism, security guarantees, and alliance building.

• Ukraine’s independence under multi-vector foreign policy (1991–2014) and dependence on international recognition.
• Nuclear weapons and the Budapest Memorandum—security assurances that proved unreliable in 2014 and 2022.
• Shift after 2014 toward European and Euro-Atlantic integration (EU/NATO) and the 2019 constitutional move toward European identity.

Ukrainian Politics

Andrew Wilson

This lecture explores the historical and ideological roots of the war against Ukraine and its implications for the future, with a special focus on various multilateral agreements and partnerships, from the Budapest Memorandum to a possible mutual defense pact between Ukraine and the Baltic states.

Lecture on Ukraine’s domestic politics since independence, contrasting democracy with Russia, and analyzing the role of informal politics, oligarchy, media control, and Zelensky’s rise amid war and reform attempts.

Ukraine’s early democratization with cycles of presidential turnover and occasional stability under different leaders
Informal politics and oligarchy have shaped state power, media, and governance since independence
Rise of oligarchic media and political technology as tools to influence elections and public opinion

Final GeNie 5.0 Workshop

Prof. Hans-Georg Heinrich

Participants of the course will be invited to independently develop forecasts based on the models presented during the sessions. The main tool is GeNIe Modeler — free software for working with Bayesian networks. Additionally, the use of auxiliary tools such as Excel and distribution calculators will be demonstrated.

No prior knowledge of mathematical analysis is required — and it is not part of the program.

• GeNIe interface and functionality Inside the models:
• Q&A session
• Final project presentations

Throughout the entire course — especially after the second workshop, when the active phase of preparing the final project begins — live communication with Prof. Heinrich and participants’ questions are not only welcome but strongly encouraged.

The Baltics: NATO's frontline and Putin's headache

Konstantin Eggert

The Baltic States and Finland are routinely described as NATO's eastern flank and frontline in a potential future war against Russia. At first glance, the vulnerabilities are definitely there. Lithuania's capital Vilnius is situated only 33 km from the border with Belarus, a de facto Russian satellite.

However, a more detailed examination shows that Russia is no less exposed and vulnerable to NATO’s pressure in the Baltic Sea region, probably more so than anywhere else. This lecture will provide a thorough overview of the region’s developments since Moscow's annexation of the Crimea, and cover potential future scenarios for the NATO-Russia standoff.

The Asian Century: Narrative or Reality? The Regional Shift of the New World Order

Dr. Doris Vogl

A lecture by Dr. Doris Vogl (ICEUR – University of Vienna) dedicated to the dynamics of the so-called “Asian Century” — from narrative to reality.

The lecture examines:

• the growing regional influence of ASEAN,
• the expansion and political significance of BRICS,
• the strengthening of the SCO and its role in Eurasia,
• de-dollarization and emerging economic mechanisms,
• the US–China rivalry in Asia,
• key political crises in the region, including Myanmar, the Spratlys, and the Cambodia–Thailand conflict.

The lecture addresses the central question: Is the 21st century truly becoming the “Asian Century,” or is it still primarily a political narrative? A completely new analytical framework is presented: ASEAN centrality, RCEP, emerging confederative tendencies, and the growing cultural confidence of Asian societies.

Trump, USA and De-Globalization

Mete Aksoy

The lecture analyzes de-globalization (deg globalization) through a four-factor forecast model (technology, demographics, geography, institutions) and contrasts three schools of thought (Peter Zahhan, George Friedman, Parakana) to argue that demographics, geography, and energy pose structural challenges to globalization, with regionalization likely to replace global trade in the coming decades.

• Four-step forecast model identifies key factors: technology, demographics, geography, institutions, and geopolitical tensions.
• Three schools of thought diverge on globalization: Zahhan (classical), Friedman (institutional liberalism), Parakana (internet age, connectivity).
• Aging populations, chokepoints, and energy dependence threaten global supply chains and growth.