ICEUR School of Political Forecasting and Consulting
ICEUR School trains experts in political forecasting using advanced modeling and real-world case studies. We are the only institution integrating Genie 5.0, a top-tier forecasting tool. Graduates excel in government, corporations, and think tanks. Join us to master political forecasting.
Sponsored by the Federal Ministry for European and Foreign Affairs Republic of Austria
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ICEUR
Discover new horizons with ICEUR!
ICEUR has been one of Europe's leading think tanks for 15 years, delivering its analyses and forecasts to governments, ministries and international organizations. In addition to advising government agencies in different countries (Austria, Germany, France and others), as well as international organizations through individual client-oriented policy analysis, ICEUR also has experience in solving problems for companies operating in post-Soviet countries or planning to enter the market in this region. Political forecasting is a major component in this type of counseling.
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ICEUR
The ICEUR School of Political Forecasting is a unique project created at the intersection of academic competence and practical needs of EU political structures, ministries, banks and large corporations. ICEUR offers detailed information about the post-Soviet countries, the features of their political systems, economic development, military and social programs.
Observations show that the demand for skills such as forecasting and in-depth analysis of political trends is growing rapidly. We appeal to students in academic institutions, diplomats, civil servants and decision-makers who plan to improve their qualifications.
For whom are our courses designed?
The topic of the first semester is the war in Ukraine
Political forecasting is the art and science of anticipating future political events, trends, and dynamics based on current data, historical patterns, and analytical models. It empowers individuals and organizations to make informed decisions in an ever-changing geopolitical landscape.
Political forecasting is the art and science of anticipating future political events, trends, and dynamics based on current data, historical patterns, and analytical models. It empowers individuals and organizations to make informed decisions in an ever-changing geopolitical landscape.
In an era of global uncertainty, the ability to forecast political and economic developments has never been more critical. At ICEUR School, we equip our students with cutting-edge forecasting skills through rigorous analysis, advanced modeling, and computer-assisted inference.
Our courses are built on the extensive expertise of our faculty across these key disciplines. For scenario building and predictive inference, we utilize Genie 5.0 a powerful modeling software developed by BayesFusion LLC. Widely employed by leading international corporations and government agencies in the U.S. and Canada, Genie 5.0 is at the forefront of modern forecasting technology. ICEUR School is the only academic institution specializing in political forecasting that integrates this advanced tool into its curriculum.
Our instructors, trained in the application of Genie 5.0, incorporate real-world case studiesinto their lectures, covering a broad range of geopolitical and strategic topics. Additionally, we provide ongoing, interactive tutoring through dedicated Telegram channels, ensuring continuous support and engagement for our students.
Graduates of our program gain valuable expertise that opens doors to consulting and advisory roles in government agencies, multinational corporations, and think tanks worldwide.
Join ICEUR School and take the first step toward mastering the art and science of political forecasting.
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Genie 5.0
STAY ONE STEP AHEAD!
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POLITICAL FORECASTING
Successful forecasters are open-minded people who are not satisfied with ready-made answers, regardless of their level of training in mathematics or statistics. Our approach to developing real-world problem-based forecasting skills builds on consulting work and makes this program accessible to students with different backgrounds and initial competencies. They will be able to discover a new world of insights and opportunities.
The program is structured to develop relevant practical skills and attitudes, in particular:
- Multidisciplinary thinking
- Flexibility
- Learning to correct past mistakes in order to make fewer mistakes in the future.
- Identifying methods suitable for solving specific problems.
- Assessing what the forecast can cover
- Calculating the probability that the prediction will come true.
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We use only verified data and up-to-date research so that you can trust every figure and fact. No guesswork – only reliable information.
Only verified data.
Learning from qualified experts and policymakers
Many years of experience.
Career prospects.
We have 15 years of experience in successful political consulting for various government agencies and private companies.
Our graduates receive new career opportunities in analytics, journalism, politics and consulting. Learn to build a successful future.
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Why ICEUR School?
Our experts are politicians, diplomats and scientists who share real experience and knowledge. You get access to unique first-hand expertise.
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perspective
Let your education open the doors to the apex of your career!
Employment opportunities for graduates.
Skills in forecasting and the analysis of political trends open the door to a successful career. Our graduates are in demand in various fields:
Skills in forecasting and the analysis of political trends open the door to a successful career. Our graduates are in demand in various fields:
- Political consulting: development of strategies and recommendations for politicians and government agencies.
- Business consulting: market analysis, forecasting and decision-making in the corporate sector.
- Media: expert commentary, analytics, and content creation.
- Education: teaching and research.
- Banking: Assessing Risks and Economic Prospects.
- Social security: working with migrants and vulnerable groups.
- NGOs: Project Management and Data Analysis in Community Initiatives.
- International organizations: UN, OSCE and other structures.
- Government: participation in the development and implementation of state programs.
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Founders of the school
She studied law, history and political science at various Russian higher educational institutions (1984-1994), received a doctorate in philosophy in 1995, and was enrolled in the Faculty of Basic and Integrative Sciences of the University of Vienna. Fellow at FWF (Lise Meitner Postdoctoral Fellowship), Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for the Consequences of Wars. She worked at the Austrian State Archives (Commission of Historians) and the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe/Vienna (IDM). A series of lectures and seminars at the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna, at the Institute for the History of Eastern Europe of the University of Vienna, as well as at the Institute of Political Science of the University of Vienna.
She is currently vice-president and manager of the International Center for Eastern Europe Research (ICEUR).
Publications on Russia's foreign and security policy, Austrian and international politics, political Islam and ethno-political conflicts in the post-Soviet space.
She is currently vice-president and manager of the International Center for Eastern Europe Research (ICEUR).
Publications on Russia's foreign and security policy, Austrian and international politics, political Islam and ethno-political conflicts in the post-Soviet space.
He studied law, political science and foreign languages at the University of Vienna. Lecturer at training centers affiliated with U.S. universities. Headed the Department of Political Science at the University of Vienna. Visiting professor in the USA, Europe and Asia. Worked in various field missions and OSCE representations: Tbilisi, Chechnya, Belgrade. Co-founder of ICEUR-Vienna and currently its vice-president. Publications on Soviet, Russian and Eastern European Politics. Able to communicate in 12 languages.
Prof. Hans-Georg HEINRICH
Dr. Ludmilla LOBOVA
The courses are developed and conducted jointly by Ludmilla Lobova, Ph.D., and Hans-Georg Heinrich, Professor Emeritus of Political Science.
Political forecasting is the art and science of anticipating future political events, trends, and dynamics based on current data, historical patterns, and analytical models. It empowers individuals and organizations to make informed decisions in an ever-changing geopolitical landscape.
Political forecasting is the art and science of anticipating future political events, trends, and dynamics based on current data, historical patterns, and analytical models. It empowers individuals and organizations to make informed decisions in an ever-changing geopolitical landscape.
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ICEUR Diploma: Your Key to Success!
Final Exam
After completing a full course of lectures and workshops, you will receive a diploma of a graduate of the ICEUR-Vienna School, confirming your professionalism and expert skills.
The prerequisite for the award of a diploma is the presentation of a forecasting model created by the student on a specific topic. Preferably, GeNIe 5.0 software (Bayes Fusion) should be used. The assessment criterion is the complexity of the model
- The ICEUR Diploma is an international recognition in the field of forecasting and analysis.
- Personal recommendations – for top graduates looking for a job, we provide recommendations based on your academic success
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FIRST Semester
Topic: War in Ukraine.
In the first semester, we study political forecasting using the example of the war in Ukraine. Forecasts will be based on expert assessments by eminent international experts on the topic of war.
5 months - 30 blocks
5 months - 30 blocks
The war in Ukraine is not only a topic of transnational significance and influence. It is also an important area for the study of forecasting and retrospective analysis. In line with the School's goals, leading researchers, experts, and practitioners view the war from different perspectives and together create a comprehensive picture, defying the story about Humpty Dumpty.
Start 10.02.2025 - 15.06.2025
We offer courses in English and Russian
Within the general theme of political forecasting, specific lectures are selected to meet the interests and needs of different audiences. The courses are not simply duplicated in two languages, but are aimed at providing a variety of information.
Our courses in Russian are designed to reach the Russian-speaking diaspora of the EU, diplomatic missions, European military personnel serving in international peace-keeping missions, enterprises, banks and firms whose employees are active in the post-Soviet space. This, of course, does not exclude cross-registration and the choice of a block of lectures in two languages.
Internationally recognized educators at your service
Темы и преподаватели
Курс лекций
Др. Людмила Лобова
ICEUR Vienna
Ориентация, введение: прогнозирование политических событий (3 блока)
Др. Константин Бондаренко
Руководитель Фонда «Украинская политика», Киев (2 блока)
Др. Владислав Иноземцев
Директор Центра постиндустриальных исследований (Москва)
Специальный советник проекта MEMRI по изучению российских медиа
(Вашингтон, округ Колумбия) (3 блока)
Др. Михаил Минаков
Старший советник, Институт Кеннана, Международный центр Вудро Вильсона для ученых. Главный редактор Kennan Focus Украина (2 блока)
Др. Николай Петров
Старший научный сотрудник, заведующий Лабораторией анализа трансформационных процессов Центра новых евразийских стратегий (NEST). (Берлин) (2 блока)
Интеграция оккупированных Россией территорий в Украине
Александр Морозов
Российский политический аналитик, колумнист, преподавал в Рурском университете (Германия), Карловом университете (Чехия). (3 блока)
Др. Андреас Умланд
Стокгольмский центр восточноевропейских исследований. (Центр Östeuropastudier, SCEEUS) (2 блока)
Проф. Нина Хрущева
(The New School, N.Y.) (2 блока)
Россия и украинская война
***будет объявлено дополнительно.
Д-р Анатоль Ливен
Директор Евразийской программы, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft (Вашингтон, округ Колумбия)
Профессор Джорджтаунского университета в Катаре с 2014 по 2021 год.(2 блока)
Маг. Кристоф Бильбан
Национальная академия обороны (Вена, Австрия), Институт поддержки мира и управления конфликтами (2 блока)
Военные аспекты
ICEUR Vienna
Ориентация, введение: прогнозирование политических событий (3 блока)
Др. Константин Бондаренко
Руководитель Фонда «Украинская политика», Киев (2 блока)
- Особенности и специфика украинского Майдана в 2014 году.
- Украина между Майданом и войной: причины, предпосылки и факторы российско-украинской войны.
Др. Владислав Иноземцев
Директор Центра постиндустриальных исследований (Москва)
Специальный советник проекта MEMRI по изучению российских медиа
(Вашингтон, округ Колумбия) (3 блока)
- Неготовность России и войне и the first adjustment.
- "Военное кейнсианство" и головокружение от успехов.
- The Second adjustment и вероятные перспективы.
Др. Михаил Минаков
Старший советник, Институт Кеннана, Международный центр Вудро Вильсона для ученых. Главный редактор Kennan Focus Украина (2 блока)
- Демография Украины во время войны и ее послевоенные перспективы.
- Партийная система и властные сети в Украине во время войны и их послевоенные перспективы.
Др. Николай Петров
Старший научный сотрудник, заведующий Лабораторией анализа трансформационных процессов Центра новых евразийских стратегий (NEST). (Берлин) (2 блока)
Интеграция оккупированных Россией территорий в Украине
- Война в Украине и российские регионы.
- Интеграция оккупированных украинских регионов в российское пространство
Александр Морозов
Российский политический аналитик, колумнист, преподавал в Рурском университете (Германия), Карловом университете (Чехия). (3 блока)
- Вторжение. Анализ прогнозов и логики прогнозирования накануне российского вторжения в Украину, декабрь 2021 - февраль 2022.
- Прогнозирование "перемирия". Как оно конструируется и кто и как использует ожидания возможного прекращения огня.
- Позиция стран восточного фланга НАТО в кремлевской аналитике в период войны. Как интерепретируются общественные настроения и действия правительств Чехии, Венгрии, Словакии, Польши.
Др. Андреас Умланд
Стокгольмский центр восточноевропейских исследований. (Центр Östeuropastudier, SCEEUS) (2 блока)
- Судьба Украины и будущее международного порядка.
- Украинские ультраправые в постсоветский период
Проф. Нина Хрущева
(The New School, N.Y.) (2 блока)
Россия и украинская война
***будет объявлено дополнительно.
Д-р Анатоль Ливен
Директор Евразийской программы, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft (Вашингтон, округ Колумбия)
Профессор Джорджтаунского университета в Катаре с 2014 по 2021 год.(2 блока)
Маг. Кристоф Бильбан
Национальная академия обороны (Вена, Австрия), Институт поддержки мира и управления конфликтами (2 блока)
Военные аспекты
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PRICE
- 30 units that will reveal all aspects of political forecasting.
- 4 workshops with materials for detailed analysis and recommendations from experts.
- Homework assignments that allow you to dive deeper into the material and practice your skills.
- Access to an exclusive library of analytical materials, cases, graphs and data.
- Checklists and templates for self-analysis and forecasting.
- Support in a closed community of students and experts to exchange experience and knowledge.
- Individual feedback from the course curators on the completed tasks.
- A diploma issued after completion of the course, confirming your new competencies.
Forecasting
Forecasting is often used interchangeably with predicting. In contrast to forecasting, a prediction is accurate (“Sunrise in Vienna will be at 05a CET tomorrow”). A forecast states the probability of an event (“Expected probability of rainfall today is 60%; “The resignation of the government is highly likely”) Political forecasting intersects with political analysis; it focuses on the elaboration of probable outcomes that may materialize in specific settings.
Forecasting uses quantitative and qualitative tools like Bayesian networks, big data analysis, various Delphi methods, text analysis or simply the use of a deep familiarity with the operation of a given system. Many sophisticated quantitative models do not meet the strict textbook standards and mapping political processes on “hard data” is often quite arbitrary.
Nevertheless, political forecasting needs a solid multi-level analysis of the factors /indicators that together produce a specific outcome or scenario as well as the readiness to learn from past mistakes in order to be less wrong (Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise, 2012).
Forecasting is often used interchangeably with predicting. In contrast to forecasting, a prediction is accurate (“Sunrise in Vienna will be at 05a CET tomorrow”). A forecast states the probability of an event (“Expected probability of rainfall today is 60%; “The resignation of the government is highly likely”) Political forecasting intersects with political analysis; it focuses on the elaboration of probable outcomes that may materialize in specific settings.
Forecasting uses quantitative and qualitative tools like Bayesian networks, big data analysis, various Delphi methods, text analysis or simply the use of a deep familiarity with the operation of a given system. Many sophisticated quantitative models do not meet the strict textbook standards and mapping political processes on “hard data” is often quite arbitrary.
Nevertheless, political forecasting needs a solid multi-level analysis of the factors /indicators that together produce a specific outcome or scenario as well as the readiness to learn from past mistakes in order to be less wrong (Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise, 2012).
To find out the prices please contact the administrator
Political forecasting is the art and science of anticipating future political events, trends, and dynamics based on current data, historical patterns, and analytical models. It empowers individuals and organizations to make informed decisions in an ever-changing geopolitical landscape.
Political forecasting is the art and science of anticipating future political events, trends, and dynamics based on current data, historical patterns, and analytical models. It empowers individuals and organizations to make informed decisions in an ever-changing geopolitical landscape.
FAQ
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FAQ
For graduates, a certificate will be issued in the name of ICEUR. Particularly successful students receive letters of recommendation from us
The fee is € 1,500 per semester. For early bookers, this amount is reduced to € 1000.
The semester lasts 5 months (February to June)
A lecture or exercise lasts about 60 minutes
The lecturers will provide relevant literature and materials.
There are workshops with compulsory participation as a prerequisite for receiving the certificate
Direct transfers to the ICEUR account are possible.
The course fee must be paid with the note "School" to the following account: ICEUR-Vienna; IBAN AT502011129025715500; BIC GIBAATWW.
The course fee must be paid with the note "School" to the following account: ICEUR-Vienna; IBAN AT502011129025715500; BIC GIBAATWW.
The standard price for one semester is € 1,500
The amount can be paid to the ICEUR account in three parts of € 500 each. The deadline for the first part is 15-01-2025, the remaining parts must be paid by 15-03-2025.
If you pay online, contact our manager to get a link.
If you pay by bank transfer – see section Can I pay by bank transfer?
The amount can be paid to the ICEUR account in three parts of € 500 each. The deadline for the first part is 15-01-2025, the remaining parts must be paid by 15-03-2025.
If you pay online, contact our manager to get a link.
If you pay by bank transfer – see section Can I pay by bank transfer?
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CONTACTS
+43 677 64131250
Breitenseer Strasse 19/24 - 26A, Wien 1140
The International Center for Eastern Europe Research
school@iceur-vienna.at
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