• A world in rapid transformation: alliances are shifting, traditional norms of international behavior are losing relevance, and power is concentrating in the hands of a few key players who shape — and are shaped by — the new global order.

• Regions as emerging actors: Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and the Indo-Pacific are not just reacting to global changes but actively developing their own strategies to secure influence and stability in a fluid geopolitical landscape.

• Strategies for resilience and growth: from regional integration and new security frameworks to civic movements and innovative economic models — we’ll explore how regions adapt and redefine their roles in the evolving “great game.”

• Analytical skills for a new era: the course equips you to think strategically, analyze scenarios, and assess regional agency in a complex, multipolar world where adaptability is the key to survival and success.

• Course objectives and expected learning outcomes
• Structure, schedule, and assessment criteria
• Overview of key readings and resources

• Expert lectures covering key global regions and thematic areas
• Case studies illustrating successful forecast modeling in practice

• Guided group work to model expert political forecasts
• Iterative refinement and peer feedback sessions

• Presentation and defense of individual or group-developed forecasting models
• Evaluation based on methodological rigor, clarity of presentation, and analytical insight

• Identifying, structuring, and weighting political factors
• Building causal maps for political scenarios
• Translating qualitative insights into quantifiable model elements

• Introduction to GeNIe 5.0: interface and core functions
• Step-by-step model construction: Chance models, decision networks, verification
• Advanced modeling techniques: scenario analysis, temporal modeling with dynamic plates, working with equation nodes
• Special seminar by GeNIe developer Dr. Marek Druzdzel: cutting-edge features and real-world applications

• Understanding and managing uncertainty in political analysis
• Fundamentals of modeling and inference
• Bayesian reasoning: principles, advantages, and main fields of application
• Comparative perspective: Bayesian networks vs. traditional statistical modeling

• Apply Bayesian network modeling to complex political forecasting challenges
• Translate qualitative political analysis into structured probabilistic models
• Use GeNIe 5.0 to construct, test, and refine forecasts
• Critically evaluate forecasts in light of uncertainty and model assumptions

Watch Now: ICEUR School Students Speak Out

Insights, impressions, and takeaways from the semester

Global Policy Architect

• Personal consultations with professors
• Priority feedback on homework and case discussions
• Private Q&A session with lecturers
• Final assessment and certificate or diploma
• Invitation to ICEUR’s closed alumni circle
• Personalized letter of recommendation
• Access to ICEUR’s partnerships

For those aiming to deepen their expertise, build personal connections with professors, and stand out globally.

Analytical Authority

• Access to all live & recorded lectures
• Certificate of attendance
• Participation in online sessions
• Homework evaluations with feedback
• Final assessment and certificate or diploma
• Community access and networking

PRICE

€1200

PRICE

€1500

Full program access with structured learning, assignments, and certification

Strategic Observer

• Access to all live & recorded lectures
• Certificate of attendance
• Participation in online sessions
• Homework evaluations with feedback
• Final assessment and certificate or diploma
• Community access and networking

For curious minds who want to stay informed without formal assessments

Reserve your place in the Winter Semester 2025

PRICE

€500