Prof. Hans-Georg HEINRICH

Completed studies in law, political science, and foreign languages. Lecturer at Vienna-based teaching centers affiliated with U.S. universities. Held a chair of political science at the University of Vienna. Visiting professorships and guest lectures in various countries (Russia, Hungary, Poland, Iraq, Egypt, Cambodia). Worked in various field missions and presences of the international organization OSCE (Tbilisi, Chechnya, Belgrade). Co-founder of ICEUR-Vienna and currently its Vice President. Publications on Soviet, Russian, and East European politics in various languages.

2025, September 22
An introduction to political forecasting

2025, September 24
Bayesian Reasoning. GeNie 5.0 Workshop

Every decision in our lives is linked to a forecast about its effects. Unfortunately, even professionals’ forecasts often score no better than a coin toss. In some areas, e.g. stock market prices, it may be simply impossible to make a meaningful prediction. And often forecasters have the incentive to play down the uncertainty, ‘the noise’.

Nevertheless, if one allows for sufficient error margins, one may significantly increase the success rate. This introductory course will focus on ways and means to be less wrong and to develop a sense of the possibilities and limits of forecasting. Bayesian reasoning is proposed as a major approach, because it allows for incorporating alternative hypotheses and maps out the process of forecasting that we use in our daily lives.

2025, November 10
Workshops on GeNIe Modeler

Participants will be asked to construct forecasts, based on the models demonstrated in class. The primary item in our tool box is GeNIe Modeler, a free software for Bayesian networks. Additionally, the use of such tools as Excel or distribution calculators will be recommended and demonstrated. No prior knowledge of calculus is required, neither it is a part of this course.

List of workshops:
● GeNIe's Interface and Functions
● Diving Deeper. Q&A Session
● Final Projects Presentations

Throughout the course, and especially after the second workshop when the participants will enter the active phase of their work on the final project, active communication with Mr. Heinrich and questions are not only welcome, but strongly encouraged.

Recommended Literature:
● Kit YATES, How to Expect the Unexpected. The Science of Making Smart Predictions; Kindle e-Books, 2023
● Nate SIVER, The Signal and the Noise. Why So Many Predictions Fail-And Some Don’t. Kindle e-Books 2015

*Some of the workshops may be conducted by Mr. Heinrich’s colleague – an IT specialist with specific GeNIe 5.0 training.

2025, October 29

European Integration in the South Caucasus. Diverging Paths of Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan

The South Caucasus region, comprising Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, has long stood at the crossroads of empires, ideologies, and geopolitical interests. In recent years, the region’s relationship with the European Union has evolved in markedly different directions. This lecture will explore the complex and diverging trajectories of these three nations in their pursuit or rejection of European integration.It will cover Armenia’s western pivot, Georgia’s democratic backsliding, Azerbaijan’s strategic distance from the EU, and the role of Russia in all of that.

Edmon Marukyan, LL.M.

Edmon Marukyan is a leader of the Bright Armenia party, former Ambassador-at-Large involved in peace treaty negotiations with Azerbaijan. He was a member of the National Assembly – Parliament of Armenia, for three consecutive terms in 2012-2021. Edmon Marukyan holds two Master’s Degrees, in Jurisprudence from the Public Administration Academy of Armenia and in International Human Rights Law (LL.M.) from the University of Minnesota Law School. Marukyan is a Member of Chamber of Advocates of the Republic of Armenia and founder of the Center for Strategic Litigations.

Arkady Mil-Man

2025, October 6

Arkady Mil-Man is a senior researcher and the Head of the Russia Program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel. His research interests are focused on the Post-Soviet countries and their impact and posed risks to the Middle East from a security perspective.

Mr. Mil-Man’s career began at the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs as a Senior researcher of the Soviet Union at the Center for Political Research, and he later headed a department there. He was the founder of the Israeli Embassy in Kazakhstan in 1992, the Ambassador to Azerbaijan in 1997-2000, and to Russia in 2003-2006. He also held different positions in the headquarters of the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs. After the diplomatic career, Mr. Mil-Man worked, among other positions, in the Israeli high-tech sector, managing a venture capital fund with his partners that invested in Israeli start-ups.

Wars in the Middle East of 2023-2025 and their Impact on the New World Order

Too much and too fast – The Middle East has been undergoing a radical transformation in the last three years. Across the region, we’ve seen wars, regime changes, unprecedented protests, new alliances, failed proxies, democratic backslidings and stabilisations.

Iran faced nationwide unrest, airstrikes, and heavy losses to its military and nuclear infrastructure. Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanon weakened after Israel’s “Pager Attack.” Yemen remains in crisis as Houthis disrupt Red Sea trade. Assad’s regime collapsed. Israel’s regional normalization under the Abraham Accords progressed, only to be partly reversed by the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip.
These developments are deeply interconnected and define a new Middle East. The seismic shifts are reshaping both governance and social dynamics across the region. Who is profiting from the changes, and who is losing? How have internal and external power dynamics evolved? This lecture explores the meaning behind these changes and their global implications.

2025 September 29

Anatoliy Kruglashov, PhD

Anatoliy Kruglashov is a professor and a chairman of the Department of Political Science and Sociology at the Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University (Ukraine), as well as professor of Faculty of International Relations and Political Science at the University of Lodz (Poland), and a full Member of the Group of independent Experts on the European Charter of local self-government with the Council of Europe.
Mr. Kruglashov is the author of over 250 scientific papers; his wide research interests include history and theory of political science, political science in the Eastern European countries, their regional dynamics and development, political history of Ukraine and its international affairs, and European integration.

Russia-Ukraine War: the Crossroads of Global Future Scenarios
The Russia-Ukraine war brought crucial changes in global politics and international relations. The conflict is deeply rooted in the complicated history of Russia and Ukraine, still is not limited to their bilateral relations. Ukraine tries to go on as an independent state with a clear European identity and a course towards Euro-Atlantic integration. Despite many challenges and shortages, Ukrainian people also fight for their independence and democracy. Russia considers Ukraine an artificial construction, denies Ukrainian distinct identity, language and culture. However, this war is more than just a value-based conflict. It also embraces the all-comprehensive political competition of the West and East, democracy and authoritarianism, different visions of the past and the future of all parties concerned. It’s about the future of the global order; new hegemonies and the rebirth of imperial might for Russia.
Thus, this war is concentrated in Ukraine but is in no way limited to its borders. The future scenario of that war widely defines the prospect of Europe and evokes the changes that will sooner or later affect the global community by and large.

The Baltic States and Finland are routinely described as NATO's eastern flank and frontline in a potential future war against Russia. At first glance, the vulnerabilities are definitely there. Lithuania's capital Vilnius is situated only 33 km from the border with Belarus, a de facto Russian satellite. However, a more detailed examination shows that Russia is no less exposed and vulnerable to NATO’s pressure in the Baltic Sea region, probably more so than anywhere else. This lecture will provide a thorough overview of the region’s developments since Moscow's annexation of the Crimea, and cover potential future scenarios for the NATO-Russia standoff.

Konstantin Eggert, Hon MBE

Konstantin Eggert is an independent journalist, political analyst and communications consultant. He has been a Baltic States correspondent for Deutsche Welle (Germany) since 2014. As a journalist Eggert carried out assignments in the Middle East, Iraq, Iran, Tajikistan, Yemen, Afghanistan and the Balkans. His opinion pieces featured in the International Herald Tribune, The Times, The Financial Times, and he regularly appears on the BBC, CNN, and NPR.

In 1998-2009 Mr. Eggert was Senior Correspondent, then Editor-in-Chief of the BBC Russian Service Moscow bureau. For this work he received the honorary title of Member of The Most Excellent Order of the British Empire from Queen Elizabeth II in 2008. The same year President Valdas Adamkus awarded him Commander’s Cross of the Order of Merit of Lithuania.

China's great power policy aims to change previous patterns of the world order. Their main official narratives are “promoting multilateralism”, “more justice for the Global South”, and “fair foundations for world trade and monetary policy”. The lecture will examine these narratives and relate them with the current Chinese realpolitik.

Doris Vogl, PhD

Doris Vogl is a sinologist, with PhD in Political Science from the University of Vienna.
Her research is focused on China and European security policy. She was a lecturer at Salzburg University, and has been teaching at her alma mater, the University of Vienna, for over 7 years.

Ms. Vogl was seconded (employed via nomination by a member state) or contracted (employed directly by the mission) for European Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy missions: EUMM Georgia (2008-2010), EUPOL Afghanistan (2011-2013), EUCAP Sahel Mali (2014-2015). She was also seconded for OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, Luhansk Region (2015-2017) and OSCE Office in Yerevan, Armenia (2010 – 2011). Before that, she had also studied and worked in PR in China, Taiwan, Cambodia, and Southern Caucasus.

It’s impossible to talk about the New World Order without mentioning its key designer – the United States. Donald Trump has turned his country upside down. A convicted felon, who won not only the Electoral College, but also the popular vote of over 71 million Americans.

At home he is attacking institutions and polarizing the people further apart. Notorious for unpredictability, Trump’s foreign policy is equally erratic and worrisome. Take his mixed statements about Putin, Zelensky, and a potentially disastrous bilateral deal with Russia. Add unprecedented actions towards Iran and Israel, the EU and China, and we have a real brain-teaser for those trying to comprehend swift and impending changes he’s bringing upon the world. Is there some sort of coherence? What may he do next to announce another ‘win’? If not predictions, can we at least speculate on what to expect? Or does his show business approach to politics eliminates this option too? This lecture will dive deep into what’s going on with America right now and how it affects everyone else on the planet.

Nina Khrushcheva, PhD

Nina Khrushcheva is Professor in the Julien J. Studley Graduate Programs of International Affairs at The New School (New York), a research university, for 24 years now. Her primary research interests are Global Media and Culture, World Politics, Russian Politics and Culture, Art and Politics, Propaganda and Hollywood, and Post-Truth.

After receiving her Ph.D. from Princeton University, she had a two-year appointment as a research fellow at the School of Historical Studies in Princeton and then served as Deputy Editor of East European Constitutional Review at the NYU School of Law. She is a member of Council on Foreign Relations, an independent American think tank focused on U.S. foreign policy and international relations.

Ms. Khrushcheva is an editor of and an author for Project Syndicate, a nonprofit media organisation that publishes and syndicates commentary and analysis on a variety of global topics. Their membership currently comprises over 500 media outlets active in 156 countries. Ms. Khrushcheva is also a recipient of Great Immigrants: The Pride of America Award from Carnegie Corporation of New York in 2013 and of a 2019 Gold Medal of Honorary Patronage from Trinity College Dublin.

2025, October 13
BayesFusion Introduction

2025, October 15
BayesFusion Introduction. GeNie 5.0 Workshop

Marek J. Drudzel, PhD

Marek Druzdzel is a Founding Partner of BayesFusion, LLC. and a professor emeritus at the School of Computing and Information, University of Pittsburgh. He is a graduate of the Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands with a M.Sc. degrees in Computer Science and in Electrical Engineering, and holds a Ph.D. degree from Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA. His research focuses on building decision support systems that are based on sound principles of probability theory, statistics, and econometric. He has worked in the area of decision-theoretic systems for almost 40 years.

In 1995, Prof. Marek J. Druzdzel created the Decision Systems Laboratory, at the University of Pittsburgh. The research group focused on research and training in decision-analytic approaches to decision support. From the very beginning, he decided that the laboratory would be developing its own decision modeling software and it would make it available to the community. In June 2015, Marek Druzdzel and his colleague Tomek Sowinski created BayesFusion, LLC, and obtained an exclusive license for GeNIe and SMILE from the University of Pittsburgh.

Andrew Wilson, PhD

Andrew Wilson, PhD is a Professor of Ukrainian Studies at University College London’s School of Slavonic and East European Studies and a Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
He is a leading expert on Ukrainian politics, post-Soviet transitions, and political technology. Wilson is the author of several influential books, including The Ukrainians: Unexpected Nation, Ukraine Crisis, and Virtual Politics. He frequently advises European institutions and appears in international media as a commentator on Eastern European affairs.

Dr. John LOUGH

Dr. John Lough is a geopolitical expert with a background in Russia and Eastern Europe whose 35-year career has spanned the worlds of business, diplomacy, and research. He is an Associate Fellow of the Russia & Eurasia Programme at Chatham House (since 2009) and is a regular commentator on Russian and Ukrainian affairs. He spent three years with Highgate (2021-2024), a leading London-based strategy consulting firm, and was a partner in the company before moving to the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, a recently established think tank focused on the future of Russia. He ran his own consultancy business for five years advising clients on political and investment risk in Russia, Ukraine, and other countries of the former Soviet Union. From 2008 to 2016, he ran the Russia/CIS practice of BGR Gabara, a public affairs consultancy. From 2003 to 2008, he was an international affairs adviser at TNK-BP, Russia’s third-largest oil company at the time. He spent six years with NATO managing information programmes aimed at Central and Eastern Europe, including a posting to Moscow where he set up NATO’s Information Office in Russia. He was the first Alliance official to be permanently based in Russia (1995-1998). During this time, he developed media and public affairs programmes designed to contribute to better understanding of NATO and its policies in Russian society and was NATO’s spokesman in Russia. Before joining NATO, he was a senior lecturer at the Soviet Studies (later Conflict Studies) Research Centre in the UK, writing on a wide range of defence, security, and foreign policy issues related to the former Soviet Union. He studied German and Russian literature at Cambridge University. He is the author of Germany’s Russia Problem (Manchester University Press 2021).

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