ICEUR, Vienna, Austria
with
Prof. Hans-Georg HEINRICH
We won’t promise to teach you how to predict the future. We’ll try to figure out what to do when it refuses to cooperate. Again
Challenging the Unpredictable: Robust Decision-Making Under Deep Uncertainty
— free WEBINAR
19:00 CET
ZOOM Online
October 1, 2026
Accept the Challenge! →
Presented by ICEUR School of Political Forecasting & Consulting
Why Does This Matter?
The question is not only what will happen, but which decisions can remain effective across very different possible futures.
Decisions still have to be made
Sometimes we cannot reliably estimate probabilities, agree on future scenarios, or even be certain that our assumptions will remain valid.
Traditional forecasts don’t always work
exposé
More unexpected events, more interdependencies, and more factors whose consequences are difficult to anticipate.
The world is becoming less predictable
What Will We Explore Together?
We’ll look at approaches designed for situations in which a single reliable forecast of the future is simply not available. Instead of searching for one “most likely” future, we’ll ask how decisions can be tested across multiple possible futures - and how to identify strategies that remain effective when our assumptions turn out to be wrong.
3
Why a good decision does not necessarily have to be optimal for one expected future - and how we can look for strategies that perform reasonably well across many different conditions.
Stress-test the decision against the future
Why a good decision does not necessarily have to be optimal for one expected future - and how we can look for strategies that perform reasonably well across many different conditions.
What makes a decision robust?
2
exposé
Where ordinary uncertainty ends and deep uncertainty begins - when we cannot confidently agree on probabilities, future scenarios, or even the structure of the problem itself.
When prediction is no longer enough
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UVic Award for Teaching
Excellence
2025
PIMS Education Prize
2024
PhD in Mathematics
University of Toronto
Associate Teaching Professor
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
University of Victoria, Canada
Dr. Trefor Bazett is a mathematician and educator specializing in making advanced mathematical ideas accessible and intuitive.

He is the author of an educational series on Bayes’ theorem and Bayesian inference published by Springer Nature and has created more than 500 educational mathematics videos for an international audience.
About the Speaker
Dr. Trefor Bazett
who this webinar is for
You Don’t Need to Be a Mathematician
LEARNING & STUDY
Understand how probabilistic
thinking works.
CURIOUS MINDS
Make better decisions when
information is incomplete.
RESEARCH & ANALYSIS
Policy, security and research.
WORK WITH DECISIONS
Information, forecasts and decision-making.
NO Сomplicated Formulas
NO Special Background
NO Programming
Bayesian thinking doesn’t start with formulas.
It starts with a simple question: how should you change your mind when new information becomes available?

This webinar is for anyone who wants to reason more clearly under uncertainty - even if mathematics and statistics have never been your strong suit.
If you can ask questions,
you’re ready for this webinar
Get Free Access to the Webinar
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