Political Forecasting:
When, How and Why?

Most people are not aware of the fact that they make hundreds of forecasts every day. The bad news is that most professional forecasts score no better than coin tosses. Partly, it may be simply impossible to make a meaningful forecast (e.g., stock market prices). Partly, forecasters have the incentive to play down the uncertainty (“noise”) that goes with every forecast. Nevertheless, if one allows for sufficient error margins, one may significantly increase the success rate. This webinar held by political scientist Prof. Dr. Hans-Georg Heinrich will focus on developing a sense for the possibilities and limits of forecasting.

The Webinar serves as an introductory course for the upcoming semester of our online School of Political Forecasting, where renowned political scientists and analysts, drawing on their theoretical knowledge as well as extensive in-field experiences, will provide an in-depth understanding of and the tools for political forecasting with a focus on the war in Ukraine.

Our school is sponsored by the Austrian Ministry of European and Foreign Affairs

How to register?

CONTACTS

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Breitenseer Strasse 19/24 - 26A, Wien 1140

The International Center for Eastern Europe Research

school@iceur-vienna.at