• Diplomats and foreign service professionals. To navigate complex regional shifts with strategic clarity and strengthen policy decision-making.
• Defense and security analysts. To anticipate emerging risks and model future scenarios with precision tools like Genie 5.0.
• Staff of international organizations (OSCE, NATO, EU institutions). To gain a structured view of geopolitical transformations and enhance coordination across regions.
• Political advisors and think tank researchers. To upgrade their analytical frameworks and communicate insights with academic depth and real-world relevance.
• Development and humanitarian professionals. To understand the deeper regional dynamics behind conflict, migration, and instability.
• Journalists and editors. To provide sharper, context-driven reporting rooted in structured analysis — not scattered headlines.
• Academics and graduate students. To enrich their research, sharpen methodologies, and engage with leading European experts.

• Course objectives and expected learning outcomes
• Structure, schedule, and assessment criteria
• Overview of key readings and resources

• Expert lectures covering key global regions and thematic areas
• Case studies illustrating successful forecast modeling in practice

• Guided group work to model expert political forecasts
• Iterative refinement and peer feedback sessions

• Presentation and defense of individual or group-developed forecasting models
• Evaluation based on methodological rigor, clarity of presentation, and analytical insight

• Identifying, structuring, and weighting political factors
• Building causal maps for political scenarios
• Translating qualitative insights into quantifiable model elements

• Introduction to GeNIe 5.0: interface and core functions
• Step-by-step model construction: Chance models, decision networks, verification
• Advanced modeling techniques: scenario analysis, temporal modeling with dynamic plates, working with equation nodes
• Special seminar by GeNIe developer Dr. Marek Druzdzel: cutting-edge features and real-world applications

• Understanding and managing uncertainty in political analysis
• Fundamentals of modeling and inference
• Bayesian reasoning: principles, advantages, and main fields of application
• Comparative perspective: Bayesian networks vs. traditional statistical modeling

• Apply Bayesian network modeling to complex political forecasting challenges
• Translate qualitative political analysis into structured probabilistic models
• Use GeNIe 5.0 to construct, test, and refine forecasts
• Critically evaluate forecasts in light of uncertainty and model assumptions

Global Policy Architect

• Personal consultations with professors
• Priority feedback on homework and case discussions
• Private Q&A session with lecturers
• Final assessment and certificate or diploma
• Invitation to ICEUR’s closed alumni circle
• Personalized letter of recommendation
• Access to ICEUR’s partnerships

For those aiming to deepen their expertise, build personal connections with professors, and stand out globally.

Analytical Authority

• Access to all live & recorded lectures
• Certificate of attendance
• Participation in online sessions
• Homework evaluations with feedback
• Final assessment and certificate or diploma
• Community access and networking

Full program access with structured learning, assignments, and certification

Strategic Observer

• Access to all live & recorded lectures
• Certificate of attendance
• Participation in online sessions
• Homework evaluations with feedback
• Final assessment and certificate or diploma
• Community access and networking

For curious minds who want to stay informed without formal assessments

Reserve your place in the Winter Semester 2025